World Cup 2022: one indicator giving US hope against England; Brazil star Neymar to miss rest of group stage

World Cup 2022: one indicator giving US hope against England;  Brazil star Neymar to miss rest of group stage

It’s Black Friday and we’re here at the Golazo Starting XI newsletter to help you beat your Thanksgiving turkey hangover. The best deal for today is a newsletter full of free football content. England will play the USA in the most anticipated World Cup game for the Americans. And I’m here to give you hope for USMNT. So let’s get started.

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⚽ Line Forward

Why English xG gives US hope

CBS Sports Voice

At first sight, England’s impressive 6-2 victory over Iran in their opening match, seems like an utterly appalling result for the US. But if you look under the hood of that game, there is reason to believe that all those scoring calculations were a bit misleading.

Entering the World Cup England were considered one of the favorites to win.. The success of recent years – second place at the Euro in the summer of 2021 after losing the semi-final of the World Cup in Russia in 2018 – speaks for itself. These results were based mainly on solid defense and offense that is enough to win. The fact that this England team is now scoring for fun makes them an impressive force to be reckoned with. The good news for the US men’s team is that all of these scoring may come to an end.

Sure, the Three Lions scored six goals, but England’s expected goals (xG) were only a more reasonable 2.11. This indicator shows how many goals a team will score on average due to the chances it creates. Why is this so useful, you ask? We have a decade of data showing that over time, even the best teams tend to play at the level that their xG predicts, they just create more xG and concede less xG than their opponents.

To put this number in context, when Argentina suffered an embarrassing 2-1 defeat to Saudi Arabia, this came despite Messi and company having an xG of 2.26 and only scoring one goal. Germany had an xG of 3.09 in their 2-1 loss to Japan. England’s relatively meager xG compared to their impressive goalscoring record also contrasts with other high-octane performances from some of the World Cup’s top teams. When Spain scored seven goals against Costa Rica, their xG was 3.53. When France scored four against Australia, their xG was 4.21..

Want more World Cup coverage? Listen below and follow House of ChampionsCBS Sports’ daily football podcast bringing you top-notch analysis, commentary, predictions and more during the big games in Qatar.

None of this, of course, means that the USMNT should prioritize victory. But that means we should all be skeptical about the idea that the Americans will have to deal with an ambitious new English team. Instead of, England seems just as old, a good defensive side, which especially against defensive opponents can be relatively heavy in attack. Against such a team, USMNT will have a chance to win.

🔗 Midfield game

Neymar to miss rest of group stage

Getty Images

Your ankle shouldn’t look like this. On what was otherwise a triumphant start for Brazil in this World Cup, when Richarlison scored two goals in a win against Serbia, including what was clearly goal of the tournament at the momentNeymar is expected to miss the remainder of the group stage, which casts a shadow over the situation. This Brazilian team might be able to overcome his absence because they are an extremely deep and talented team, but they also changed their style of play to showcase his exquisite talents on the ball. Almost no one operates in tight spaces quite like him, and his role as a playmaker behind three strikers is what has made the current version of the Brazilian team successful.

Let’s go to some links:

Listen below and follow We Believe in Football: CBS Sports Soccer Podcast where three of your favorite former USMNT players cover everything you might want to know about the US men’s national team during the World Cup in Qatar.

💰 Back lines

Best rates

Let’s choose some games! All odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook.

  • England – USA, Friday, 2:00 pm ET.
    💰 CHOICE: Under 2.5 goals (-120). I’ve devoted much of this newsletter to getting you skeptical of England’s newfound attacking energy. So let’s put our money where our mouth is. Good performances in the England team usually means winning, and even good performances in the USA do not mean creating a ton of scoring chances. So if the game stays tight, it will most likely be a low score game.
  • France vs Denmark Saturday 11:00 AM ET
    💰 CHOICE: Denmark (+400). France ran wildly overtaken by Australia, but Australia may have been the worst team in the tournament. This is a big line for Denmark, which, despite a draw in the first match, is in the top ten teams of the tournament. Another option here would be to bet on Denmark +0.5 goals at +0.5.

Written by khirou

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