Bitcoin Price Could Still Drop 40% After FTX ‘Lehman Moment’ – Analysis

Bitcoin Price Could Still Drop 40% After FTX 'Lehman Moment' - Analysis

On Nov. 18, Bitcoin (BTC) was rejected again at $17,000 as jittery markets experienced more FTX aftermath.

Hourly candlestick chart BTC/USD (Bitstamp). Source: Trading View

BTC receives $12,000 price target

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed that BTC/USD has failed to turn $17,000 towards support – the trend has continued for almost a week.

The pair, like the major altcoins, remained firmly tied with cold feet due to the FTX debacle and its implications for various crypto businesses.

For analysts, the outlook remained just as bleak, with the already gloomy outlook worsening in light of recent events.

“This poor performance of all crypto assets will continue until the bulk of the uncertainty clears up – probably only towards the start of the new year,” trading firm QCP Capital wrote in its latest circular to Telegram channel subscribers of the day.

In an extensive market review, QCP wrote that its price predictions for both Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) now had to come down to reflect the impact of FTX.

By updating the forecast based on the June Elliott Wave Theory, he confirmed that BTC/USD now has a $12,000 target and ETH/USD an $800 target.

“By the way, the crypto markets have been trading in the same way as commodities since the top of 2017 – with extended wave 5 being the longest wave,” the post reads.

“Therefore, such potential price action with new lows in the new year would be characteristic of previous bear market sell-offs.”

The attached chart shows the divergence between cryptocurrencies and equities in November, with the correlation between the two faltering due to the low performance of cryptocurrencies.

Chart of BTC/USD vs ETH/USD vs S&P 500. Source: QCP Capital

Meanwhile, popular trader and analyst Cantering Clark noted that if the current bear market for risky assets replicates the global financial crisis, then big losses are yet to come.

“Lehman’s bankruptcy was the culmination of the 2008 financial crisis. Qualitatively it was the lowest material, but the market paused and then decided to cut the price by 40%,” part of the tweet. read.

“Never say never and don’t let your guard down.”

Annotated chart of the S&P 500. Source: Cantering Clark/Twitter.

As reported by Cointelegraph, $13,500 has also become a popular downside target.

The crypto pie is being “massively cut”

Continuing, QCP also raised concerns about declining volumes and open interest (OI) on both centralized (CEX) and decentralized (DEX) exchanges.

Connected: U.S. Cryptocurrency Exchanges Lead Massive Bitcoin Outflows With Over $1.5B In BTC Withdrawn In A Week

“CEX derivatives exchange volumes have suffered the most so far. The OI of combined futures is now back to pre-2021 levels, which is a huge step back for the industry.

Bitcoin futures open interest chart. Source: QCP Capital

As for the DEX, it says the data “implies the entire crypto pie is shrinking en masse.”

“Total DeFi TVL is now less than 1/4 of last year’s peak!” the post is summarized along with additional explanatory diagrams.

“Even the DEXs that are expected to win the most saw volumes only rise to July/August levels, even with all the emergency token/stable/chain swaps that needed to be done after FTX.”

DEX volume chart. Source: QCP Capital

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Every investment and trading step involves risk, you should do your own research when making a decision.